I guess some people would have been wondering why I have been keeping silent on Myanmar considering the fact that I have written so much about it before.I guess I have been waiting to see what else is going to happen before putting thoughts to keyboard. There have been so many false starts that were efficiently suppressed by the military government that any hope for change died before news grew stale.
This time round, it seems that things are going to happen in a big way. And last Saturday, I was quite moved to read that Aung San Suu Kyi appeared in tears at the front of her house where she has been kept a virtual prisoner with two other ladies and prayed with the monks who surprisingly were allowed to march pass. This was one of her rare appearances and I have just read that she has been moved to the notorious Insein prison, possibly to prevent her from giving any form of tacit encouragement.
Perhaps the economic situation has gotten so bad that the people have decided that they really have nothing more to lose except their lives.
Looking at past history, one can more or less figure out what is going to happen next - a repeat of the brutal crackdown on the pro-democracy 8888 uprising (8 August 1988). And though I wish it wouldn't be so, I guess the roads of the country will soon flow as red as the robes of the monks.
I am sure the Sangha knew what they were getting into when they started this; their own deaths must not be far from their minds. Given the odds against them and the fact that scores or even thousands of them are going to die from the possible repercussion, I guess they've decided that they have no other choice but to make this stand.I think what bothers me the most is that our governments - the governments of ASEAN - have been mollycoddling the military regime all this while. And even to the extent of accepting the country as a member of ASEAN in 1997. Granted their purported aim is to engage the military and through that encourage change in the country. But after a decade, the only thing that has changed is that the military government has gotten richer from trade with us while the people are still impoverished and disenfranchised.
So what has ASEAN achieved from this engagement? Perhaps more trade and raw materials while looking like an ineffectual grouping that has neither bark nor bite.
Then again, I doubt if some countries of ASEAN or even China (Myanmar's closest friend) can really criticise them without looking like hypocrites.
Even though I do not agree with China's stance on the current situation, I have to agree that this is an internal matter; though not from the same perspective of China.
Change in government really has to come from within the country and the people. Though I wish it was not so and dread to think of the human cost and lives that will be lost, it is a fight that only they can wage. As we have learned from Iraq, no country can sweep in and deliver democracy to them.
The only thing our governments can do is to exert pressure on them. And if we are not willing to do that, then the least we can do is sever all relations with the junta lest we become complicit in their brutality.
I am no expert, but I think the only way they can effect change is to convince the ordinary soldiers to move over to their cause. They are the ones who follow the generals' orders and they are the ones who man the weapons. Perhaps they can be convinced that the very people they are attacking are their very own compatriots and loved ones. Maybe then they can see that the only possible end of the current state is the death of their own people and the only alternative way forward for the country is one without the generals.
But if the generals were smart, they would probably not post soldiers within their own provinces and move them far away where they have no emotional ties and will not hesitate to act with needed brutality.
Even if the military regime does buckle, things will not improve overnight. It will just be the first of many more difficult steps to bring the country forward. The first is to ensure that there will be an orderly transition of power and a way to hold all the different ethnic groups together amicably.
For a country that provided the third secretary-general of the United Nations, this is a really sad state of affairs.
Meanwhile, all we can do is watch, wait and pray as the Sangha marches with civilians while other folks form human shields around them or give them aid and water. So far, three protestors have died.
(Photos above are taken from BBC news)
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